Upcoming months may lead to radical changes in Belarus. The changes will affect the political situation and security in Central and Eastern Europe and Russia's position in the post-Soviet areas well as towards the western countries.
Regardless of Lukashenka's political future in the longer term it is certain that Russia's economic presence in the Belarusian economy and the domination of Russian companies in the privatization process will increase.
The regime found itself in the most serious crisis since taking office by President Lukashenko. There was a cumulative negative effects for Belarus: the impact of the global economic crisis, losing a privileged position in economic relations with Russia, the growing political conflict with Moscow and adverse changes in the geopolitical environment.
These factors shook the foundations of Lukashenko’s state and may lead to regime’s subjection towards Russia, and even to its collapse. It will be conducived by presidential campaign and the presidential election - most likely at the end of this year. Even in the case of continuation of Lukashenko reign this will effect in significant changes in the status and position of Belarus.